Latviavs
Montenegro
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montenegro · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Latvia 1-2 Montenegro
Original prediction
Montenegro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.83 | 19.5% | 28.1% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 26.1% | 27.7% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.73 | 54.4% | 44.2% | -10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Montenegro
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Montenegro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 0.40/0.40
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60