Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Latvia · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Latvia 0-0 Cyprus
Original prediction
Latvia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.61 | 35.8% | 36.9% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 30.6% | 29.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.78 | 33.7% | 33.7% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Latvia
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Latvia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LatviaLWWDD
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 0.40/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
CyprusLWDWL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LatviaCyprus
0.0Attack33.3
33.3Defence33.3
0.0Form0.0
15.3Power23.7
1.27xG1.14