Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toulouse · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lask Linz are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Toulouse are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Toulouse hold a 12.2-point power-rating edge (37.6 v 49.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.3% in the UEFA Europa League, while Toulouse holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Toulouse
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Toulouse has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20