Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lask Linz 3-6 Liverpool
Original prediction
Liverpool
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.59 | 12.5% | 28.5% | 16.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.06 | 18.8% | 25.1% | 6.3 pts |
| Away | 1.39 | 68.6% | 46.4% | -22.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Liverpool
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Liverpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Lask LinzLWDLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LiverpoolLWWDW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Lask LinzLiverpool
55.6Attack66.7
44.4Defence66.7
33.3Form100.0
42.4Power80.3
1.47xG1.68