Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lascaris · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lascaris 0-1 Fezzanese
Original prediction
Lascaris
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.5% | 44.6% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.5% | 27.9% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.78 | 23.9% | 27.5% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Lascaris
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Lascaris has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LascarisLWDLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
FezzaneseLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 12 · avg 0.20/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
LascarisFezzanese
50.0Attack0.0
50.0Defence33.3
50.0Form0.0
50.0Power15.3
1.67xG1.05