Lascarisvs
Alessandria
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie D - Girone A · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alessandria · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lascaris 1-2 Alessandria
Original prediction
Alessandria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.13 | 28.8% | 32.6% | 3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.5% | 28.4% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 43.7% | 39.0% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Alessandria
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Alessandria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00