Las Vegas Lightsvs
San Antonio
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/4/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Las Vegas Lights · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Las Vegas Lights 1-0 San Antonio
Original prediction
Las Vegas Lights
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.7% | 35.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 27.1% | 29.4% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 34.2% | 34.9% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Las Vegas Lights
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Las Vegas Lights has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80