Las Vegas Lightsvs
New Mexico United
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/6/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New Mexico United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Las Vegas Lights 1-2 New Mexico United
Original prediction
New Mexico United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 44.0% | 29.6% | -14.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.0% | 26.2% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.05 | 30.0% | 44.1% | 14.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
New Mexico United
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
New Mexico United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00