Las Vegas Lightsvs
Monterey Bay
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 3/29/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Las Vegas Lights · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Las Vegas Lights are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Monterey Bay are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Las Vegas Lights hold a 15.0-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 35.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.8% in the USL Championship, while Las Vegas Lights holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Las Vegas Lights
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
11.8%
Las Vegas Lights has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80