GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 3/29/2026, 2:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Las Vegas Lights · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Las Vegas Lights are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Monterey Bay are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Las Vegas Lights hold a 15.0-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 35.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.8% in the USL Championship, while Las Vegas Lights holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Las Vegas Lights

Probability

58.9%

Model confidence

11.8%

Las Vegas Lights has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Las Vegas LightsLLDLW

GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Monterey BayDLLDL

GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Las Vegas LightsMonterey Bay
45.6Attack35.0
52.6Defence40.0
45.6Form25.0
50.6Power35.6
1.84xG0.87
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