Las Vegas Lightsvs
Lexington
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/18/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Las Vegas Lights 3-5 Lexington
Original prediction
Lexington
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.05 | 29.8% | 27.1% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.6% | 23.8% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 44.6% | 49.1% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Lexington
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 16 · GA 4 · avg 3.20/0.80