Las Vegas Lightsvs
Hartford Athletic
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/20/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Las Vegas Lights · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Las Vegas Lights 0-0 Hartford Athletic, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Las Vegas Lights 1-1 Hartford Athletic
Original prediction
Las Vegas Lights
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 43.8% | 35.6% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.2% | 28.9% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 30.0% | 35.5% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.44 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Projected Score
Las Vegas Lights 0–0 Hartford Athletic
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Las Vegas Lights
Probability
35.6%
Model confidence
35.6%
Las Vegas Lights has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80