Las Palmasvs
Valladolid
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 10/4/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Las Palmas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Las Palmas 2-2 Valladolid
Original prediction
Las Palmas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 40.8% | 40.8% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 29.5% | 29.6% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 29.7% | 29.5% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.15 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Las Palmas
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Las Palmas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20