Las Palmasvs
Castellón
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 10/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellón · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Las Palmas 0-3 Castellón
Original prediction
Castellón
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.38 | 27.5% | 18.7% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.8% | 22.2% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 46.7% | 59.1% | 12.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Castellón
Probability
59.1%
Model confidence
59.1%
Castellón has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60