Las Palmasvs
Burgos
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 9/20/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Las Palmas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Las Palmas 1-2 Burgos
Original prediction
Las Palmas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 47.9% | 45.3% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.9% | 28.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.01 | 23.2% | 25.9% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Las Palmas
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Las Palmas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20