Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saburtalo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Larne are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Saburtalo are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Saburtalo hold a 28.3-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 64.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.4% in the UEFA Europa League, while Saburtalo holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Saburtalo
Probability
35.4%
Model confidence
35.4%
Saburtalo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60