Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Larne · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Larne 1-2 Linfield
Original prediction
Larne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 47.4% | 45.2% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.0% | 28.0% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.55 | 25.6% | 26.8% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–015%
- 3.1–114%
Predicted outcome
Larne
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Larne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LarneLWWWW
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LinfieldDWWWD
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LarneLinfield
70.8Attack48.5
75.0Defence75.8
79.2Form78.8
75.5Power69.9
1.17xG0.83