Larnevs
Coleraine FC
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 10/16/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Larne · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Larne 2-3 Coleraine FC
Original prediction
Larne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 39.4% | 37.0% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.0% | 28.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.86 | 31.6% | 34.5% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Larne
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Larne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20