Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Larne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Larne 1-0 Bangor
Original prediction
Larne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 80.0% | 60.0% | -20.0 pts |
| Draw | 6.77 | 13.5% | 21.9% | 8.4 pts |
| Away | 14.00 | 6.5% | 18.1% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Larne
Probability
60.0%
Model confidence
60.0%
Larne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LarneWLWDL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BangorDLLLD
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LarneBangor
33.3Attack16.7
83.3Defence8.3
66.7Form8.3
64.8Power16.6
2.08xG0.85