Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Larisa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Larisa 1-0 PAOK II
Original prediction
Larisa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 62.7% | 50.4% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 22.9% | 26.6% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 6.33 | 14.3% | 23.0% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Larisa
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
Larisa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LarisaWDWDL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PAOK IIWLDWW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
LarisaPAOK II
83.3Attack33.3
83.3Defence50.0
66.7Form50.0
74.3Power47.8
1.53xG0.85