L'Aquilavs
Foligno Calcio
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie D - Girone F · 10/25/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
L'Aquila · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
L'Aquila 3-2 Foligno Calcio
Original prediction
L'Aquila
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 59.6% | 43.6% | -15.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.6% | 27.6% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 5.67 | 15.9% | 28.8% | 12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
L'Aquila
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
L'Aquila has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40