GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 9/19/2024, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Lanus · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Lanus are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Independiente Medellin are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Lanus hold a 4.2-point power-rating edge (40.7 v 36.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.1% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Lanus holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Lanus

Probability

37.1%

Model confidence

37.1%

Lanus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

LanusDDDWD

GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
Independiente MedellinDWLDW

GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LanusIndependiente Medellin
33.3Attack33.3
33.3Defence50.0
50.0Form16.7
40.7Power36.5
1.27xG1.09
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