GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 4/11/2024, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Lanus · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Lanus are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Deportivo Garcilaso are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWD), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lanus hold a 25.3-point power-rating edge (40.7 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.1% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Lanus holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Lanus

Probability

41.1%

Model confidence

41.1%

Lanus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

LanusDLLWL

GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Deportivo GarcilasoDWLWD

GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
LanusDeportivo Garcilaso
33.3Attack0.0
33.3Defence33.3
50.0Form0.0
40.7Power15.3
1.38xG1.03
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