Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cuiaba · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Lanus are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Cuiaba are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Cuiaba hold an 18.8-point power-rating edge (40.7 v 59.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Cuiaba holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cuiaba
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Cuiaba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80