Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Lanus are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Cruzeiro are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold a 19.3-point power-rating edge (40.7 v 60.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.2% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Cruzeiro holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 27% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40