Lanús Res.vs
Independiente Riva. Res.
COMPLETEDArgentina · Reserve League · 9/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lanús Res. · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lanús Res. 3-3 Independiente Riva. Res.
Original prediction
Lanús Res.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.0% | 49.0% | -8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.2% | 26.8% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 4.75 | 18.8% | 24.2% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Lanús Res.
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
Lanús Res. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60