Lancaster Cityvs
Workington
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lancaster City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lancaster City 0-3 Workington
Original prediction
Lancaster City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 41.8% | 42.5% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.7% | 23.8% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 31.5% | 33.7% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Lancaster City
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Lancaster City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20