Lancaster Cityvs
Stockton Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lancaster City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lancaster City 1-0 Stockton Town
Original prediction
Lancaster City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.5% | 43.2% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 25.9% | 25.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 35.6% | 31.3% | -4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Lancaster City
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Lancaster City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 14 · avg 2.00/2.80
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80