Lancaster Cityvs
Leek Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leek Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lancaster City 1-2 Leek Town
Original prediction
Leek Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 43.4% | 37.3% | -6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 25.7% | 21.4% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 2.89 | 30.9% | 41.3% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Leek Town
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Leek Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60