Lancaster Cityvs
Ilkeston Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lancaster City · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lancaster City 2-1 Ilkeston Town
Original prediction
Lancaster City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 47.4% | 51.6% | 4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 24.9% | 24.9% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.24 | 27.7% | 23.5% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Lancaster City
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
51.6%
Lancaster City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40