Lake Macquarievs
Thornton Redbacks
COMPLETEDAustralia · NNSW League 1 · 6/28/2025, 6:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lake Macquarie · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-1
Lake Macquarie are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Thornton Redbacks are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Lake Macquarie hold a 34.5-point power-rating edge (73.6 v 39.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 82.8% in the NNSW League 1, while Lake Macquarie holds the strongest overall chance at 83% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 89% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lake Macquarie
Probability
82.8%
Model confidence
82.8%
Lake Macquarie has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20