Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lahti · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lahti are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Turku PS are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and Lahti hold a 12.3-point power-rating edge (68.6 v 56.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.4% in the Ykkösliiga, while Lahti holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lahti
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Lahti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 15 · GA 10 · avg 3.00/2.00