Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lahti · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lahti 1-0 Mariehamn, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lahti 2-1 Mariehamn
Original prediction
Lahti
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 60.1% | 70.1% | 10.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.7% | 20.3% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 5.37 | 17.3% | 9.6% | -7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.0 pts
Projected Score
Lahti 1–0 Mariehamn
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Lahti
Probability
70.1%
Model confidence
70.1%
Lahti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LahtiWWLDW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MariehamnWWWLL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
LahtiMariehamn
39.4Attack25.8
71.2Defence34.8
48.5Form21.2
54.0Power30.1
1.77xG0.39