Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra
Saturday, 27 June 2026Last updated 14:54
Laholm

Laholm

Home
L
31
Full time
Utsikten

Utsikten

Away
L
Glanninge Park
GoalVio prediction
44% confidence
Laholm(44%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction correct— Result: Laholm
Win probability
Laholm
44%
Draw
27%
Utsikten
29%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Laholm
9
Utsikten
34
Defence
Laholm
0
Utsikten
6
Momentum
Laholm
0
Utsikten
0
Danger (xG)
Laholm
0.00
Utsikten
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.58 xG for Laholm and 1.14 xG for Utsikten — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.44), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.The attack-versus-defence matchup supports both teams scoring. Laholm's Attack Score (9) exceeds Utsikten's Defensive Stability (6), and Utsikten's attack (34) similarly tests Laholm's defence (0). Neither backline is dominant enough to prevent the other side from scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 2.72 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. The xG distribution places the most weight on scorelines that clear 2.5, though the margin above the threshold is not large.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Laholm's Attack Score (9) vs Utsikten's Defensive Stability (6) and Utsikten's attack (34) vs Laholm's defence (0) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Laholm)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Utsikten)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Laholm)
5.40
avg per match
xG against (Utsikten)
2.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
LaholmLaholm
LWW
UtsiktenUtsikten
LLL

Probability breakdown

44% confidence
Laholm44%
Draw27%
Utsikten29%

Laholm leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Laholm Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

Laholm take on Utsikten in Ettan - Södra.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.58 expected goals for Laholm against 1.14 for Utsikten — a marginal but consistent advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Laholm's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 55% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Utsikten have won 1 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Laholm carry the stronger underlying metrics, Utsikten's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Laholm are generating a consistent xG advantage — 1.58 projected against 1.14 for Utsikten. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.44 is the clearest signal in the model that Laholm are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Laholm's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Utsikten defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Laholm fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Head to head

Laholm 1Draws 00 Utsikten
Avg goals: 4.0BTTS in 1/1
27 Jun 2026
Laholm
W31
Utsikten

Recent form

Laholm

Laholm

L
@ Falkenbergs FF
17 Jul 2026
06
W
vs Utsikten
27 Jun 2026
31
W
vs Lund
13 May 2026
43
Utsikten

Utsikten

L
@ Laholm
27 Jun 2026
13
L
@ Lund
17 May 2026
05
L
vs Skövde AIK
13 May 2026
23

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Laholm vs Utsikten?

GoalVio's model predicts Laholm to win with 44% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Laholm vs Utsikten?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Laholm vs Utsikten?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Laholm vs Utsikten?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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