Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lagoa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lagoa 0-0 FC Serpa
Original prediction
Lagoa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.5% | 36.3% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.0% | 28.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 29.6% | 34.9% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Lagoa
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Lagoa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LagoaWLDLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FC SerpaDWLLL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
LagoaFC Serpa
33.3Attack83.3
66.7Defence50.0
44.4Form66.7
51.1Power68.0
1.22xG1.28