Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Treze · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lagarto are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Treze are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Treze hold an 11.2-point power-rating edge (46.5 v 57.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.0% in the Serie D, while Treze holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Treze
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Treze has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40