LagartovsSerra Branca

Lagarto are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Serra Branca are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWDDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Serra Branca hold an 11.0-point power-rating edge (46.5 v 57.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.4% in the Serie D, while Serra Branca holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 27% for over 2.5 goals.