Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sergipe · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lagarto are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Sergipe are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Sergipe hold a 4.7-point power-rating edge (46.5 v 51.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.5% in the Serie D, while Sergipe holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sergipe
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
14.5%
Sergipe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20