Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lagarto · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lagarto are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDDDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Retrô are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 46.5 against 46.1. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.1% in the Serie D, while Lagarto holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lagarto
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
14.1%
Lagarto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80