Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lagarto · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lagarto are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDDDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Decisão are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DWLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lagarto hold a 9.0-point power-rating edge (46.5 v 37.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.3% in the Serie D, while Lagarto holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lagarto
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
13.3%
Lagarto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60