Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Laagri · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Laagri 2-0 Vaprus
Original prediction
Laagri
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 43.8% | 52.4% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.3% | 21.6% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 30.8% | 26.0% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Laagri
Probability
52.4%
Model confidence
52.4%
Laagri has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LaagriWWWDW
GF 15 · GA 1 · avg 3.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
VaprusDDLLL
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LaagriVaprus
46.2Attack46.2
49.5Defence34.4
44.1Form38.7
47.9Power41.6
1.99xG1.26