La Roche VFvs
Aubagne
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 10/3/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
La Roche VF · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: La Roche VF 1-0 Aubagne, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
La Roche VF 3-1 Aubagne
Original prediction
La Roche VF
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.5% | 46.8% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.0% | 29.0% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 4.24 | 21.4% | 24.1% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.7 pts
Projected Score
La Roche VF 1–0 Aubagne
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
La Roche VF
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
La Roche VF has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
La Roche VFWWDDW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AubagneWLLDW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
La Roche VFAubagne
50.0Attack20.8
70.8Defence62.5
75.0Form29.2
69.2Power39.7
1.35xG0.47