La Nucíavs
Real Murcia II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 9/13/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Murcia II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: La Nucía 0-1 Real Murcia II, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
La Nucía 5-1 Real Murcia II
Original prediction
Real Murcia II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.9% | 31.2% | -20.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.7% | 27.9% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.45 | 20.4% | 40.9% | 20.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.5 pts
Projected Score
La Nucía 0–1 Real Murcia II
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Real Murcia II
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Real Murcia II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.67/2.33