La Nucíavs
Lorca Deportiva
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
La Nucía · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: La Nucía 1-0 Lorca Deportiva, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
La Nucía 1-3 Lorca Deportiva
Original prediction
La Nucía
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 48.1% | 50.0% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.4% | 28.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.05 | 22.4% | 21.5% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Projected Score
La Nucía 1–0 Lorca Deportiva
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
La Nucía
Probability
50.0%
Model confidence
50.0%
La Nucía has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80