Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-2
La Luz are 0W-0D-1L in their last 1 (L), averaging 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded, while Penarol are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (WDDDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 6 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Penarol hold a 26.2-point power-rating edge (39.8 v 65.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 68.1% in the Primera División, while Penarol holds the strongest overall chance at 68% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
68.1%
Model confidence
68.1%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/3.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20