Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
La Luz are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Paysandu are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and La Luz hold a 2.8-point power-rating edge (47.5 v 44.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 23.6% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
23.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 0.60/0.20
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80