Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: La Luz 0-0 Miramar, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
La Luz 3-0 Miramar
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 October 2026 at 20:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.3% | 38.3% | -8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.7% | 32.7% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 3.63 | 25.0% | 29.0% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Projected Score
La Luz 0–0 Miramar
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.7%
Model confidence
38.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
La LuzWDWWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MiramarWWLDW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
La LuzMiramar
29.9Attack32.2
64.4Defence60.9
43.7Form39.1
48.2Power46.3
0.76xG0.62