La Luzvs
CA River Plate
COMPLETEDUruguay · Segunda División · 10/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: La Luz 0-0 CA River Plate, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
La Luz 3-2 CA River Plate
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 34.8% | 32.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.7% | 31.8% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 35.5% | 35.3% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Projected Score
La Luz 0–0 CA River Plate
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.8%
Model confidence
35.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
La LuzWLWLD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CA River PlateWDDLL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
La LuzCA River Plate
26.9Attack44.9
64.1Defence53.8
39.7Form43.6
45.7Power49.1
0.79xG0.89