Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atenas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: La Luz 0-0 Atenas, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
La Luz 0-1 Atenas
Original prediction
Atenas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 33.8% | 27.9% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.93 | 30.9% | 31.4% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.4% | 40.7% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Projected Score
La Luz 0–0 Atenas
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Atenas
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Atenas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
La LuzWLDLL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AtenasDWDLL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
La LuzAtenas
26.4Attack45.8
63.9Defence59.7
38.9Form51.4
45.2Power53.6
0.67xG0.93