Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
La Luz are 0W-5D-0L in their last 5 (DDDDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Atenas are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Atenas hold a 6.1-point power-rating edge (47.5 v 53.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 20.3% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 23% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
20.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20