La Fioritavs
Murata
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 10/9/2026, 7:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
La Fiorita · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
La Fiorita 3-0 Murata
Original prediction
La Fiorita
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 84.1% | 60.9% | -23.2 pts |
| Draw | 7.63 | 11.9% | 21.6% | 9.7 pts |
| Away | 22.67 | 4.0% | 17.5% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
La Fiorita
Probability
60.9%
Model confidence
60.9%
La Fiorita has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60